It ended with a sack about 50 yards away from where the real action took place after a goal-line stand that led to a safety with 15 seconds left.

In today’s analytical sports world, the outcome-certainty percentage flipped flopped between Chandler and Centennial several times before finally coming to a rest on the on the Wolves.

Articial intelligence takes in all of the variables - time left on the clock, position of the field, offense versus defense, etc - and spits out a team's chance to win. It hinges and sways after each play. It can be seen during broadcasts, on apps and anywhere else fans consume sports.

What it doesn't take into consideration is the human factor because if one of three calls by referees goes a different way Centennial is probably still among the undefeated in 6A, matching Hamilton.

At this point we are trashing AI-driven winning percentages and using Writer's Knowledge (WK) - a formula based on this guy's 30 plus years of covering high school football.

And moments before Chandler won it was at about 98 percent resting on the Coyotes, who not only changed quarterbacks mid drive, but brought in the jumbo package to get down to the 1-yard line with three plays to go in the final minute.

Oh, and they had a touchdown, or so the Coyotes thought, poked out the back of the end zone after the receiver seemingly secured the ball and took two steps. If Dez Bryant was there, he would have thought it was a score for sure.

In other words, it was a crazy and hectic ending Friday night at Austin Field as Chandler topped Centennial 20-16 in a 6A non-region matchup of powerhouses.

Let’s start with 5 minutes left in the game, after the Wolves (6-1) managed two field goals in the second half to break a 14-all halftime score. Chandler scored 13 unanswered after the defense picked off Centennial quarterback Titus Hill at the Wolves 2-yard line.

The Coyotes (6-1) took over at the 50 with 5:10 remaining in the game down six.

It was 77 percent WK in favor of the Wolves at this point.

Centennial sophomore quarterback Jonah Garcillano started the drive and made several key runs to keep the drive alive and floated a ball to Jaylee Abraham, who was cut down by a defender at the 6-yard line.

The WK probability dramatically swung in favor the Coyotes at 60 percent.

The aforementioned jumbo packaged that included Titus Hill back in at quarterback, 5-foot-11, 250-pound Matu Pati at fullback and 5-11, 230-pound Derrion Bartholomew at running back came on to the field.

It worked - Centennial picked up a first down to the 4-yard line as Bartholmew bounced around, used his body control to twist for the first down.

Another dive play from the same formation saw Bartholomew brought down at the 1.

The WK win percentage pushed the needle to 99 percent at that point. Three plays and plenty of time to go less than 36 inches with a large offensive line and jumbo package.

Second down, with the same formation, saw the Chandler defense win the push scrum and Bartholomew taken down at the 4.

Two plays. To get it in from the 4. Win percentage for Centennial was still at a good 83 percent.

Out goes the jumbo package. In comes the regular three-receiver set. The Chandler defense gears up for whatever comes next.

Centennial receiver Jason Lee finds space, Hill fires a pass and Lee looks to secure it before Chandler’s Brivid Laudermilk closes in and pokes it out of Lee’s hand. The WK was moving to 99 percent in favor of the Coyotes until the back judge signals incomplete.

One more shot. Win percentage dropped to 73 percent for the Coyotes.

Centennial puts in on the Hill brother connection. The Wolves put in on their underrated defensive unit.

Titus drops back, throws to the left flat where Torrin has one-on-one coverage. It's Chandler senior Jai Jones.

The ball goes up, Torrin goes up in an attempt to make the catch but Jones – who never looked for the ball – deflected the ball away and made some contact.

The WK was waiting to see if a flag was to be thrown. If so, first-and-goal at the 2-yard line would have pushed the WK back to 95 percent Centennial.

The flag never came. WK took in the info and gave the Wolves 95 percent chance to win.

Quite the turn around. The WK had all the variables pointing for the Coyotes having an raoucous ride back to Peoria.

“We needed one more at the end,” Centennial coach Andrew Taylor said. “Great job by them. Their defense is pretty stout. We thought we could get in there with little time left but it didn’t work out. It was very close. I definitely want to see that last play on film.

“The corner had no idea where the ball was and there was a lot of contact.”

The WK wasn't done tabulating just yet.

Chandler's first play from scrimmage was a false start and pushed the percentage down to 91 percent in the favor of the Wolves after half the distance placed the ball at the 2-yard line.

Two plays later – a loose ball, a possible defensive TD after a Coyotes player - Javier Chacon - came out of the ball had it swinging back the Coyotes in the 90th percentile.

After a tense half minute, the officiating crew ruled it was a safety and 15 seconds put on the clock despite Centennial coming out of the pile with the ball.

Another drmatic shift in the WK win percentage. Let’s put it at 97 percent Chandler, 3 percent Coyotes.

It went to 94/6 percent when Abraham, the most explosive player on the field, broke through the initial kickoff coverage and left 9 seconds left. A quick out pass, and the clock was down to 3 seconds and 50 yards to cover.

The final calculation before the final play pushed it 98 percent Chandler. 

One more play for Centennial but it ended with a sack - showing the Wolves defense had one more play left after the goal-line stand.

“I’m proud of the resiliency of our guys and that goal-line stand there at the end was big time,” Chandler coach Ty Wisdom said. “(Centennial) is a damn good football team. We made some mistakes, but we found a way at the end to make just one more play.”

The WK was all over the place on this night. It was at about 65 percent that Centennial was going to win at the outset. And 55 percent in favor of the Coyotes at halftime.

It swung from one side to the other about 10 times in the final five minutes.

But there are a few more calculations to lay out.

The WK sits at 100 percent as far as both teams making The Open.

It comes in at 47 percent that these teams meet again sometime around Thankgsiving.

One thing WK that is 100 percent sure and fully on board with is having these two teams meet again. 

Second comments and story ideas to jskoda@azpreps365.com. Follow him on X and Instagram at AzPreps365Skoda for insights, opinions, additional stories, and in-game coverage by using #AzPreps365Live.

 

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Some additional photos from Darryl Webb, special to AzPreps365.